Monday, June 7, 2010
11 Primaries On June 8th ~ A Task To Sort Out
What a wild year. I have followed elections since I was a child. I cannot recall a wilder year politically. In a year when Republicans should be happily heading towards the fall elections the Conservatives led by Demint and the other Republicans led by Cornyn are in a bitter inside fight for control of the party. So far DeMints choices have fared better, but the Republicans should be developing a platform, and not squabbling with one another. Michael Steele our own affirmative action choice seems unable to help matters and at best ineffective.
We will know much late tomorrow evening and on Wednesday morning, and in the following weeks will will know if the Tea Parties can hold their resolve to flip the house.
You can find tidbits of a forecasts here,
by david Freddoso in the Washington Examiner, http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/incumbents-run-in-fear-election-day-scorecard-for-tomorrow-95804349.html
In recent weeks, Fred Barnes had this interesting column in the Weekly Standard, http://www.theweeklystandard.com/blogs/can-gop-win-senate-2010
Below I have used my two most reliable resources, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ and http://www.electionprojection.com/index.php
Runoff - Polls For Democrat Nominee
Halter has a slim 4 point lead in one poll and Lincoln a 1.8 lead in the other. With any luck as I see it we can wave goodbye to good ol' Blanche! Arkansas is one of the states that should become a plus for Republicans in the Senate.
In California, much to the dismay of many Conservatives Fiorina and Whitman are wildly ahead in the polls, while two true Conservatives, and Tea Party Favorites struggle for recognition Davore (Senate) and Natarelli (Governor). To top it off there are the huge population areas of the San Francisco Bay Area and the Los Angeles Basin. Republicans are out registered by Democrats by 2 to 1. Given California's dire financial situation it is hard to say that anyone can correct what is wrong.
Fiorina RCP Average 5/19 - 6/6 -- 43.2 21.6 16.2 Fiorina +21.6
Whitman RCP Average 5/19 - 6/6 -- 54.6 25.8 Whitman +28.8
In Iowa Branstad is firmly ahead in the Republican primary for Governor.
Primary - Polls
Des Moines Register 6/1 - 6/3 501 LV 57 29 8 Branstad +28
Grassly should hold his seat despite his early treachery with the Healthcare bill.
Maine from http://www.electionprojection.com/blog/tags/megov_2010.php
"Governor: Democrat John Baldacci is term-limited. He is currently serving his second four-year term in Augusta. Looking to occupy the Governor's Mansion after he leaves are no less than 20 different folks, 7 Republicans, 7 Democrats and, in keeping with Maine's political DNA, 6 independents. At this stage it is highly difficult to pick the nominees - much less the next governor. Polls don't help much, giving nobody a clear advantage. So, the preliminary projection leans left just as Maine does."
I can find no primary polling data for Maine.
In Montana, I can find no information, the Governor is not up for re-election, nor are either of the two Senators.
Talk about controversy. Nevada has a ton of it. As one of the states hit hardest by the recession it has more vacant homes on the market than any other. The unemployment rate is highest in Nevada, and the Tea Parties have different favorites, today in a rare departure, TPN endorsed Tarkanian, other Tea Parties have endorsed Angle, and both have surpassed Lowden recently in the polls. Earlier in the year all were well ahead of the weasel Harry Reid. In the last few weeks Angle has pulled ahead, and in a heads up poll leads Reid by 4 points. Reid has a campaign chest of some 9 million bucks so no matter who challenges him this weasel will need to run through all of his lives and with any luck we will be able to say "poof" goes the Weasel this fall
Primary - Polls
Senate RCP Average 5/31 - 6/3 -- 33.0 24.7 24.3 Angle +8.3
Governor RCP Average 5/31 - 6/3 -- 47.3 28.3 Sandoval +19.0
New Jersey who we all grew to love and heaped tons of praise on elected on of the most exciting and straight speaking governors in years. Neither Senate seat is up for reelection, and I could find no data on the Congressional races, let us hope that Christie has some magic and some coattails.
05/19/10 Rasmussen Reports Hoeven 72% - Potter 23%
05/27/10 Larry Sabato Pundit Change: Toss-up to Lean GOP
05/20/10 Rasmussen Reports Berg 52% - Pomeroy 43%
05/21/10 RATING CHANGE: Weak Pomeroy to Weak Berg
05/15/10 CQ Politics Pundit Change: Lean DEM to Toss-up
Primary - Polls
05/23/10 Public Policy Polling (D) DeMint 49% - Rawl 30%
05/23/10 Public Policy Polling (D) Haley 45% - Rex 36%
05/23/10 Public Policy Polling (D) McMaster 42% - Rex 36%
05/23/10 Public Policy Polling (D) Barrett 38% - Rex 36%
05/23/10 Public Policy Polling (D) Rex 40% - Bauer 38%
05/23/10 Public Policy Polling (D) Haley 44% - Rex 34%
05/23/10 Public Policy Polling (D) McMaster 43% - Sheheen 36%
05/23/10 Public Policy Polling (D) Barrett 43% - Sheheen 33%
05/15/10 CQ Politics Pundit Change: Likely GOP to Safe GOP
05/23/10 Public Opinion (R) Spratt 43% - Mulvaney 41%
05/26/10 Rasmussen Reports Knuppe 47% - Heidepriem 34%
05/26/10 Rasmussen Reports Munsterman 46% - Heidepriem 38%
05/26/10 Rasmussen Reports Howie 49% - Heidepriem 36%
05/26/10 Rasmussen Reports Knudson 49% - Heidepriem 34%
05/26/10 Rasmussen Reports Daugaard 51% - Heidepriem 36%
05/27/10 Rasmussen Reports Herseth-Sandlin 48% - Curd 41%
05/27/10 Rasmussen Reports Herseth-Sandlin 46% - Noem 43%
05/27/10 Rasmussen Reports Herseth-Sandlin 47% - Nelson 43%
05/27/10 Larry Sabato Pundit Change: Toss-up to Lean DEM
The other fair state that gave us a big surprise with McDonnell earlier in the year, has no Senate Races or race for Governor. I can find no primary statistics for the House of Representatives in Virgina.