Saturday, May 1, 2010
Ohio Primary Precusor To Fall Election
Ohio is ranked nationally as the 26Th most conservative state, and voted for Obama in 2008. Demographically Ohio is 2.69% more Republican than the national average.
There are two Democrats running for Senate in Ohio, Democrat Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, and Jennifer Brunner. Fisher is polling well above Brunner, and will likely win the Democratic primary. Fisher is projected to to win the Democratic primary by a wide margin and will run against the Republican candidate Ron Portman who is running uncontested in the primary elections.
The race is sizing up to be Fisher-Portman match up, to fill the seat left vacant by Republican Senator Voinovich who is retiring this election cycle, and may well be the hardest seat for Republicans to hold this fall.
Ron Portman as seen in this polling data by Real Clear Politics only holds less than one percentage point lead against either Democratic primary contender and shows the wide gap between the Democratic Candidates.
This Quinnipiac Poll shows the current trends for the upcoming elections in the fall:
Polling numbers show the challenge that Republicans will face in the fall elections. The current polling averages for Governor shows Republican Tom Kasich to be one percentage point behind incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland, and within the margin of error in the race for Governor. Real Clear Politics currently has the race for Governor rated as a toss-up.
This site, Election Projection gives detailed information on the current trends for all of the Ohio seats for the primary elections, and calls for a pick up two Congressional seats in the coming fall elections.
Obama has weak approval ratings in the state of Ohio, one of the battleground states, and Independents will have a large voice in this election. Their votes will be the ones that will tip the fall elections to the winning Party.
All of the current polls reflect tight races, for the seats of Senate and Governor, and indicate they will be a challenge for Republicans to win in the fall elections. Both of the races at this point look to be a horserace to the finish. All of data at this point is reflective of the difficulty Republicans face in Ohio to not only reign in, but win conclusively barring any challenges when the election is over.
The primary elections in Ohio will be the first salvo in what appears to be a real fight to the finish line, as Real Clear Politics has called Ohio a toss-up for the fall elections.
We can only hope that the old saying as ‘Ohio goes so goes the nation’ does not apply in the fall elections.
The Republican Party, and Kasich and Portman will have their work cut out in the coming fall elections, and the Ohio primary will show where their time and effort should be spent.